September 27, 2022
NFL Betting 2022: Why you should bet under 9 wins for the Miami Dolphins

The 2022 NFL offseason is more than halfway over, and with that, it’s time to continue to buy into some teams and sell others from a betting perspective. Earlier this week, we talked about a 2022 bull in the Detroit Lions. We’ll look at the other side of the coin here with a bear projection on a team that has made a significant splash this offseason: the Miami Dolphins.

Coming off a surprise 10-6 2020 season, the Dolphins opened the 2021 campaign with a road win over the New England Patriots. They were outgained 393 yards to 259 in the contest but got some crucial turnovers to seal the first half of what would be a season sweep of Bill Belichick’s squad. But after that initial win, a Tua Tagovailoa injury and defensive regression led to seven consecutive losses for Miami, including one in London to Urban Meyer’s Jacksonville Jaguars and one at home to Arthur Smith’s Atlanta Falcons.

A get-right win against the league’s worst team in the Houston Texans gave way to a big Thursday night victory against a banged-up Baltimore Ravens team that had played 70 minutes the previous Sunday in a win against the Minnesota Vikings. From there, the Dolphins had the privilege of playing the New York teams three times in five weeks, combined with a bye and a game against a reeling Carolina team. Miami then beat Ian Book and the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football before getting rolled by the Tennessee Titans and winning a meaningless game (to them) against the Patriots in Week 17. Head coach Brian Flores was fired at the conclusion of the season.

The Dolphins had a PFF ELO rating of just 0.4 points better than the average team on a neutral field, and a Pythagorean record of just 7.6-9.4 based on a point differential of -32 points. As such, the betting markets have the Dolphins at around 8.5 or 9 wins for the 2022 NFL season, implying an improvement over a 7.6-win team rather than a decline or stagnation from a 9-8 team.

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