September 26, 2022
1.2% win odds to 100%: How Mariners did it

ARLINGTON — Things were as bleak for the Mariners as they’d been most of the season for a bulk of Sunday afternoon — until, all of a sudden, they weren’t. And with a little dose of chaos ball, the formula they thrived with throughout last season, Seattle pulled out its most improbable, unlikely and impressive come-from-behind win of the year, a 6-5, 10-inning victory over Texas that secured a third straight series win.

How remote were the Mariners’ chances of pulling this one out when they were trailing by three runs in the ninth inning? According to FanGraphs’ win-probability metric, Seattle had just a 1.2 percent chance of winning after Jesse Winker led off the frame with a groundout. With only two outs to work with, the Mariners reached a tie, then took their first lead of the day in the 10th.

France’s solo homerTy France was headed toward his fourth straight hitless game, a drought he’d experienced only once before with the Mariners, before he broke through with a solo home run in the ninth. With a 94.2 mph exit velocity (per Statcast), it had only an 11 percent hit probability and would’ve cleared the fence in only five ballparks. But thankfully for the Mariners, Globe Life Field was one of them.

Even with France’s homer, Seattle was still down by two and had been 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position to that point, leaving the club with a 3.2 percent chance to win. But it was a starting point for a spark.

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